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Message from Austria to Russia
Eric,
Before we talk strategy, I would like to take the time to point
out a few things, wich I didn't do before as I didn't want to
risk seeing you doubt my desire to go through with my offer.
First, you recently mentionned Andy's lack of trust in what I
was telling him, but it's quite normal when you share some of
our discussion with him, as you did with Jason before (like
telling Jason I had warned you about the attack on Rum). I'm
not sure how much it helped before, but to keep doing so will
surely be detrimental to you unless it's part of a carefully
coordinated attempt at deception. Afterall, I'm now nothing
more then an auxilliary of yours.
Second, unless you simply want me to point out a few things
and act as told, I need to be kept in the loop or risk acting
against your interest by ignorance. It would of course be more
fun for me to play an active part in your attempt at solo, but if
you don't want me to, I will respect your choice.
This being said, and without knowing more, my suggestion for
this spring would be to aim for four goal: take the Black Sea,
secure Tyrolia, eliminate the turkish army in Gal & prevent
the destruction of the army in Tri so it can be used in the fall.
To do so, I suggest the following:
Russia:
-Rum-Bla supported by Sev
-War-Gal support by Sil
-Ser-Bul & Ukr-Rum to bounce an attempt at Gal-Rum
-War-Tyr supported by Boh or the reverse depending on
wich territory is less likely to get attack.
Austria:
-Tri-Bud supported by Vie to block Gal-Bud and save Tri
Yours truly,
Philippe
Message from Russia to Austria
> but it's quite normal when you share some of
> our discussion with him, as you did with Jason before (like
> telling Jason I had warned you about the attack on Rum).
When is this supposed to have happened? The last time I recall telling him
that you fed me info was back in F02, when I took Rum with a fleet because he
was going to use Rum to help you and not me. While it's entirely possible
that I said something during the cooperative RT years (I have a vague
recollection of minor info sharing the season he supported me into Bud), I
have said nothing about your info to me recently. In fact, you never even
told me Jason was attacking Rum - you said he would likely order Bul S Ser.
Check your press to me if you think I'm mistaken, but I believe every single
recommendation from you was for Rum-Bul. As I told you, NOT moving Rum-Bul
was difficult to choose because it was expressly going against your
recommendations. So to tell him you warned me, I'd have had to lie,
specifically to put your trustworthiness in doubt.
I gambled that he would use significant force to take Rum rather than support
Ser because I offered him Rum in exchange for not taking Bud. But if you look
at it, I never had that info from you -- the move choice was all based on my
direct conversations with him. All I told him after the moves (which is true)
is that I made a lucky guess. I think it's natural that Jason would *think*
you warned me, especially if he really *did* confide in you. And if he thinks
it happened, then I doubt there is anything you or I can do to change his
mind. But if he said I directly told him that you warned me, then he's just
plain lying.
Similarly, with Andy, I didn't discuss anything in particular with him. Each
turn I have asked him very generally if he was willing to cooperate with me
in any way. His response was basically "as long as you are gaining dots and
I'm not, I have no reason to believe anything you say. And as long as Austria
is helping you, I'm not going to believe anything he tells me either". There
was no disucssion of WHAT you had told him (or what you told me) just a
general statement that he had no trust in info coming from you. That is what
I reflected back to you.
Sorry, I know this is probably overreaction to your comment, but I am totally
committed to you doing well: you getting good info is critical for me, and
your armies are better placed than mine are, and you have better ideas than I
do half the time anyway. I am doing NOTHING to intentionally undermine your
position, and I have done everything I can to minimize press about you to the
other players. (France asked two seasons ago if I would be propping you up,
and I strongly indicated that RT would be removing you quickly to try to make
it less obvious we were cooperating).
> I'm not sure how much it helped before,
As noted above, it was only something I did when we were actively fighting.
No one has heard anything about AR cooperation from me directly.
> Second, unless you simply want me to point out a few things
> and act as told, I need to be kept in the loop or risk acting
> against your interest by ignorance. It would of course be more
> fun for me to play an active part in your attempt at solo, but if
> you don't want me to, I will respect your choice.
From my end you are very much in the loop and active in the process. The
moves with England were agreed to within about 3 hours of the deadline, and
the move choices overall with Jason was one of those things that we had
discussed in detail. You gave me your thoughts on what he might do (including
attacking War, how I might defend if he did, etc) and we bandied that about.
I didn't confide in you the final moves, but that was because they weren't in
more than an hour or so in advance. I did fail to point out that I had
offered Rum to Turkey, but I did that even before the previous turn's
retreats processed, and so it wasn't in the forefront of my mind when I
talked to you about strategy.
> This being said, and without knowing more,
My take at this point is that there is an StL, and everyone is out to get me.
I have basically zero hope to convince Andy to attack France, but I'm hoping
he might try to sneak in behind Jason to secure Turkey as it falls. If that
happens, Jason might try throwing centers in spite. Similarly, I'm hoping
that Erik can't stand to sit behind Ben and Andy's lines throughout the next
few seasons, and may even make things easy for Ben to encourage Erik's
paranoia (that, in addition to holding Den, was why I helped England despite
it hurting me positionally in the north). Other than that, it's hold out and
let the StL fall apart through inertia. And that's my current thinking.
I need to actually get to work now, but I hope the above quells any fears
that I'm trying to keep you out of the loop on anything.
> my suggestion for this spring would be
I'll need to get back to you on specific moves, but Tri-Bud with support is
definitely something I agree with. We should talk about the relative merit of
taking Tyl vs. Ber (Tyl needs to be blocked, but we may be able to hold off
taking it until Fall.)
All this is up for discussion, and I'm happy to discuss in detail. Any sense
of out-of-the-loopness you get is entirely due to my lack of time, not lack
of trust or interest. You'll see in my press to observers that from my point
of view you have essentially run my units for the last two seasons, and that
I hoped that having that level of influence over 11 (now 13) pieces made
continuing to work with me worthwhile for you. My apologies that it comes
across in any way that I'm disregarding your input.
--- Eric
Message from Austria to England
Ben,
Can you tell me what I'm looking at? While I have been
trying to survive between Andy & Eric, I have seen you
attack France while you told me that you would take
care of Russia then take out Germany with Russia's help.
Philippe
Message from Austria to Russia
> > but it's quite normal when you share some of
> > our discussion with him, as you did with Jason before (like
> > telling Jason I had warned you about the attack on Rum).
>
> When is this supposed to have happened? The last time I recall telling him
> that you fed me info was back in F02, when I took Rum with a fleet because he
> was going to use Rum to help you and not me. While it's entirely possible
> that I said something during the cooperative RT years (I have a vague
> recollection of minor info sharing the season he supported me into Bud), I
> have said nothing about your info to me recently. In fact, you never even
> told me Jason was attacking Rum - you said he would likely order Bul S Ser.
> Check your press to me if you think I'm mistaken, but I believe every single
> recommendation from you was for Rum-Bul. As I told you, NOT moving Rum-Bul
> was difficult to choose because it was expressly going against your
> recommendations. So to tell him you warned me, I'd have had to lie,
> specifically to put your trustworthiness in doubt.
>
> I gambled that he would use significant force to take Rum rather than support
> Ser because I offered him Rum in exchange for not taking Bud. But if you look
> at it, I never had that info from you -- the move choice was all based on my
> direct conversations with him. All I told him after the moves (which is true)
> is that I made a lucky guess. I think it's natural that Jason would *think*
> you warned me, especially if he really *did* confide in you. And if he thinks
> it happened, then I doubt there is anything you or I can do to change his
> mind. But if he said I directly told him that you warned me, then he's just
> plain lying.
>
> Similarly, with Andy, I didn't discuss anything in particular with him. Each
> turn I have asked him very generally if he was willing to cooperate with me
> in any way. His response was basically "as long as you are gaining dots and
> I'm not, I have no reason to believe anything you say. And as long as Austria
> is helping you, I'm not going to believe anything he tells me either". There
> was no disucssion of WHAT you had told him (or what you told me) just a
> general statement that he had no trust in info coming from you. That is what
> I reflected back to you.
>
> Sorry, I know this is probably overreaction to your comment, but I am totally
> committed to you doing well: you getting good info is critical for me, and
> your armies are better placed than mine are, and you have better ideas than I
> do half the time anyway. I am doing NOTHING to intentionally undermine your
> position, and I have done everything I can to minimize press about you to the
> other players. (France asked two seasons ago if I would be propping you up,
> and I strongly indicated that RT would be removing you quickly to try to make
> it less obvious we were cooperating).
>
> > I'm not sure how much it helped before,
>
> As noted above, it was only something I did when we were actively fighting.
> No one has heard anything about AR cooperation from me directly.
OK. There's been some confusion it seem. When I said I waited
before telling you, I really meant it. What I was refering to all date
back before Spring 1905, so it has nothing to do with your opting
to support yourself in Rum last year, wich was the best decision
given what you had told Jason. The past being the past, I won't
waste time going over what I meant, the important point is that
since I started working for you, it's not to your advantage to share
our discussion, if it ever was. Since we both agree on this, let's
take care of the rest instead of wasting time on this.
> > Second, unless you simply want me to point out a few things
> > and act as told, I need to be kept in the loop or risk acting
> > against your interest by ignorance. It would of course be more
> > fun for me to play an active part in your attempt at solo, but if
> > you don't want me to, I will respect your choice.
>
> >From my end you are very much in the loop and active in the process. The
> moves with England were agreed to within about 3 hours of the deadline, and
> the move choices overall with Jason was one of those things that we had
> discussed in detail. You gave me your thoughts on what he might do (including
> attacking War, how I might defend if he did, etc) and we bandied that about.
> I didn't confide in you the final moves, but that was because they weren't in
> more than an hour or so in advance. I did fail to point out that I had
> offered Rum to Turkey, but I did that even before the previous turn's
> retreats processed, and so it wasn't in the forefront of my mind when I
> talked to you about strategy.
OK. I must say I was totally taken by surprise by your alliance
with England. Anyway, it's fun to know that I'm in the loop and
not simply spurting out strategy having no link with the situation
at hand.
> > This being said, and without knowing more,
>
> My take at this point is that there is an StL, and everyone is out to get me.
> I have basically zero hope to convince Andy to attack France, but I'm hoping
> he might try to sneak in behind Jason to secure Turkey as it falls. If that
> happens, Jason might try throwing centers in spite. Similarly, I'm hoping
> that Erik can't stand to sit behind Ben and Andy's lines throughout the next
> few seasons, and may even make things easy for Ben to encourage Erik's
> paranoia (that, in addition to holding Den, was why I helped England despite
> it hurting me positionally in the north). Other than that, it's hold out and
> let the StL fall apart through inertia. And that's my current thinking.
>
> I need to actually get to work now, but I hope the above quells any fears
> that I'm trying to keep you out of the loop on anything.
Then the situation is more problematic then I thought. Not
wanting to interfere with whatever you were doing in the
north, I limited my press to Andy & Jason. I will now see
what I can learn from Ben.
> > my suggestion for this spring would be
>
> I'll need to get back to you on specific moves, but Tri-Bud with support is
> definitely something I agree with. We should talk about the relative merit of
> taking Tyl vs. Ber (Tyl needs to be blocked, but we may be able to hold off
> taking it until Fall.)
>
> All this is up for discussion, and I'm happy to discuss in detail. Any sense
> of out-of-the-loopness you get is entirely due to my lack of time, not lack
> of trust or interest. You'll see in my press to observers that from my point
> of view you have essentially run my units for the last two seasons, and that
> I hoped that having that level of influence over 11 (now 13) pieces made
> continuing to work with me worthwhile for you. My apologies that it comes
> across in any way that I'm disregarding your input.
Well, if a conflict with England is to be expected, then I really
need to revised my suggestion. I will think about it and see
what Ben as to say.
Philippe
Message from England to Austria
Philippe -
> Can you tell me what I'm looking at? While I have been
> trying to survive between Andy & Eric, I have seen you
> attack France while you told me that you would take
> care of Russia then take out Germany with Russia's help.
Sure. I needed a build. I was completely unsure of Germany, you remember
his broadcast about rolling dice, and I was reasonably certain Russia would
order the supports he'd promised.
So the *only* way I calculated I could get a build - finally, an army - was
to accept the offered Russian supports that meant the end of Germany.
I do not know what you or the other players, or the members of the gallery
would have done. No doubt my inexperience has them ridiculing me enough
already.
But you ask why I did it - that's why.
Now I can attack Russia.
Ben
Message from Austria to England
> But you ask why I did it - that's why.
I must say that until your behaviour stopped matching your
press to me, I had rely on you alot and I suddenly felt very
lonely when you started acting strangely. In the end, I figure
you didn't want me in on your grand plan and I stopped
writing to you instead of having you lie to me.
Now that I know what you really want to do, I wonder
what's going to happen with Erik? I really need a break
and would appreciate seeing him move against Andy, but
he's just sitting there and if there isn't a real peace between
you two, I fear he might go after you instead.
Philippe
Message from England to Austria
Philippe -
> > But you ask why I did it - that's why.
>
> I must say that until your behaviour stopped matching your
> press to me, I had rely on you alot and I suddenly felt very
> lonely when you started acting strangely. In the end, I figure
> you didn't want me in on your grand plan and I stopped
> writing to you instead of having you lie to me.
:-) My grand plan was to stave off an FR squeeze, which was very nearly a
reality for quite a long time. That threat has, I think, finally passed.
> Now that I know what you really want to do, I wonder
> what's going to happen with Erik? I really need a break
> and would appreciate seeing him move against Andy, but
> he's just sitting there and if there isn't a real peace between
> you two, I fear he might go after you instead.
Well, as far as I can tell, right now I am the *only* power who really *can*
throw the game to Russia, so I don't think it is likely he will attack me.
If you agree with this analysis and care to rewrite in a press to him, it
would not hurt. For now I would not be surprised to see his fleets stay on
shore leave for awhile, while his armies try to creep through the German
centers.
No hard feelings for working on Russia's behalf - when the time comes for me
to ask you to do something, I will let you know.
Good luck.
Ben
Message from Austria to England
> :-) My grand plan was to stave off an FR squeeze, which was very nearly a
> reality for quite a long time. That threat has, I think, finally passed.
Given my position, it's funny to see you talked about fearing an FR squeeze ;-)
> Well, as far as I can tell, right now I am the *only* power who really *can*
> throw the game to Russia, so I don't think it is likely he will attack me.
> If you agree with this analysis and care to rewrite in a press to him, it
> would not hurt. For now I would not be surprised to see his fleets stay on
> shore leave for awhile, while his armies try to creep through the German
> centers.
>
> No hard feelings for working on Russia's behalf - when the time comes for me
> to ask you to do something, I will let you know.
>
> Good luck.
OK. Good luck to you too,
Philippe
Message from Austria to France
Hi Erik,
It's been a while since we talked and I would like to confirm
with you what your neighbours seem to think. Have you
really decided to sit tight and limit yourself to playing in the
middle of the board with your three armies?
Ben seem to think you can't afford to attack him as it would
give the game to Russia, and I suspect so does Andy.
Personaly, I don't share their sentiments regarding a russian
solo and more importantly, I'm stuck between two giants and
fighting for my life, so I would really appreciate being given
a break.
Now, I don't expect you to attack Andy just for my sake, but
you should realise that you won't see a better occasion of
doing it and that if you don't attack them, you will be stuck
defending yourself from them later on when they are stronger.
Regards,
Philippe
Message from Austria to Russia
Eric,
Ben is saying he's moving against you and I tend to believe him.
Given the rest of the board, I would expect France to go for
Mun in accord with everyone else unless you can convince him
that he should really attack his neighbours while they aren't
positioned to received him. Otherwise, he will spend the last
part of the game defending himself from two strong neighbours
and it will be really hard for him to survive that kind of situation
(I sent him a not downplaying your chances of solo and pointing
out how Ben & Andy are a threat to him, but I doubt it will be
enough to convince him). Ideally, you would want him to attack
England as you are weaker in the north at the moment, but I
would expect him to attack Andy since it's easier for him to make
gains in the south.
Regarding your question about Ber, I would say that with
England's navy, you have no hope of securing Bal for yourself
and that without control of Bal, all coastal areas around Bal are
going to necessitate a huge investment of units for each one you
wish to retain. So, unless Ber is an easy gain used to compensate
other loss for a year, it pointless to attack it while Den & Swe is
allready at stake.
As for the north in general, I would expect England to convoy
to Hol or Nwy, choosing Norway if he really wish to takeover
all the north, including Stp. Since you can't really protect the
north from an invasion, you have to decide what strategy you
will use. A strong defence that would allow you to get the upper
hand once France moved against England or if France isn't going
to move against England, a weak one to make it possible for
England to safely move against France. Personaly, the difference
between a weak one and a strong one is whether or not you keep
your fleet since you are stuck on the defensive without one. The
best way to keep your fleet safe is to use it to try to block a move
to Bal while freeing Swe for a retreat with Swe-Fin or by
attacking Ska while Swe go for Nwy supported by Stp, depending
on whether or not you want to try sending your fleet to Nwy later.
Regarding France, beside any diplomatic effort to have him attack
his neighbours, the major question is Munich. Not including any
attack he migth decide to initiate against E or I, his obvious moves
this spring is Bur-Ruh supported by Bel & Par-Bur. Unless you
wish to give up Mun, you will need one uncuttable support if Tyr is
free of italian unit and two if it's not the case, so Gal's destruction
or his retreat south is in order.
As for Tyr, losing this territory would be even worst then losing
Mun as it would, not only exposed your western front, but also
directly threathen Tri, Vie & Mun. Since Tri can't be protected
adequately this spring, even though it can also be a problem if it's
taken with an army, we should really make sure Tyr will.
So, even with an english invasion, I still suggest we proceed as
initially suggested. Anyway, when you have had the time to do
your own analysis, let me know what I'm getting wrong.
Yours truly,
Philippe
Message from France to Austria
Phillipe:
Good to hear from you. I am not rolling over to let EI take on Russia,
but I did need to recover from a bit of a loss.
Do you have enough Russian support to ensure that you can afford to work
with me should I head toward Italy?
Erik
Message from Austria to France
> Good to hear from you. I am not rolling over to let EI take on Russia,
> but I did need to recover from a bit of a loss.
Hope you're done recovering as it can only get harder to
attack Italy as time goes by.
> Do you have enough Russian support to ensure that you can afford to work
> with me should I head toward Italy?
I'm stuck between Italy & Russia, nothing more nothing less.
I & R might decided to play with me or kick me out of the
game; and there's nothing I can do about it. If I happen to be
in position to help, then good for you; but don't plan your
invasion with that in mind. Just consider it a bonus if it
happen ;-) You could try talking to Jason, but you risk losing
the benefit of surprise if you do; wich surprise should net you
Tys in the fall by the way, with all the italian fleets on the wrong
side of the island.
Philippe
Message from Austria to Russia
Eric,
The dl is tonight and I would like to know how you would like to
proceed? As for France, he's fishing for information regarding our
relationship, as part of his evaluation of a french invasion of Italy
and I'm being evasive, trying to dowmplay our collaboration so he
isn't afraid of actually attacking Andy. Has he contacted you?
Yours truly,
Philippe
Message from Austria to Italy
Andy,
Your intent seem clear enough, but have you
really decided to take me out?
Philippe
Message from Austria to Turkey
Jason,
No news from you, so I guess you're working with Andy this year;
but whatever you do, please be wary of a stab by Andy: Ven-Apu,
Ion-Eas, Alb-Ion can quickly see him convoy in your homeland. It's
enough that I'm in that much trouble, I really don't need to see it
happen to you.
Philippe
Message from Italy to Austria
Philippe,
> Your intent seem clear enough, but have you
> really decided to take me out?
I dont want to, but you have made it indelibly clear you would prefer to
see the Russian solo, and that is unacceptable.
Help me out here.
Message from Austria to Italy
> I dont want to, but you have made it indelibly clear you would prefer to
> see the Russian solo, and that is unacceptable.
>
> Help me out here.
First, I doubt an eventual russian solo depend on my actions.
Second, if I can't trust you to insure my survival, I can't afford
to go against Russia.
So, do you see any way out of this?
Philippe
Message from Italy to Austria
>
> First, I doubt an eventual russian solo depend on my actions.
Then you are being short-sighted.
> Second, if I can't trust you to insure my survival, I can't afford
> to go against Russia.
I spent a year supporting you. Then you decided to attack me and being
tipped off is the only thing that saved my ass.
I have wanted to wrk with you for a while, but when you started supporting
him against me, my actions got pretty limited.
> So, do you see any way out of this?
>
I dont knwo
Andy
Message from Austria to Italy
> > First, I doubt an eventual russian solo depend on my actions.
>
> Then you are being short-sighted.
I do wear glasses, but I meant that what little help I provide
Russia isn't going to permit him to solo.
> > Second, if I can't trust you to insure my survival, I can't afford
> > to go against Russia.
>
> I spent a year supporting you. Then you decided to attack me and being
> tipped off is the only thing that saved my ass.
I totally disagree with this interpretation of what happened,
but it's pretty pointless to argue with you about it.
> I have wanted to wrk with you for a while, but when you started supporting
> him against me, my actions got pretty limited.
Again, I don't share your point of view. I think that supporting
me in words while positionning yourself for a quick take over
of Austria is more in line with what happened.
> > So, do you see any way out of this?
> >
> I dont knwo
Provided Jason can be counted upon, I would think you could
use all those nice fleets of yours to support my interest without
my having to worry about an italian invasion. If the only italian
units bordering me are fleets, with little possibility of convoyed
attack, then the risk of seeing you move against me would be
somewhat mitigated. That is, if you find helping me to be a
worthy goal.
Philippe
Message from Italy to Austria
> I do wear glasses, but I meant that what little help I provide
> Russia isn't going to permit him to solo.
Helping him into dots, and defending him from Turkey and myself is HELPING
him solo.
> > I have wanted to wrk with you for a while, but when you started supporting
> > him against me, my actions got pretty limited.
>
> Again, I don't share your point of view. I think that supporting
> me in words while positionning yourself for a quick take over
> of Austria is more in line with what happened.
You seem to think that my units have some sort of long range
component.....and can actually defend you from RANGE.
Aside from the fact that I need to have units next to yours in order to
support you, I have to have sometihng in place in cse he rolls over you.
I asked you what you wanted, and you tired to screw me. And then started
supporting Russia against Turkey and myself.
> > > So, do you see any way out of this?
> > >
> > I dont knwo
>
> Provided Jason can be counted upon, I would think you could
> use all those nice fleets of yours to support my interest without
> my having to worry about an italian invasion. If the only italian
> units bordering me are fleets, with little possibility of convoyed
> attack, then the risk of seeing you move against me would be
> somewhat mitigated. That is, if you find helping me to be a
> worthy goal.
He is one season from rolling over you
I am defending myself
Message from Austria to Austria
Regarding my discussion with Andy. I had previously pointed out
I didn't want two italians armies bordering me, so I really believe
he was trying to play both sides of the fence. That being said, the
goal of the current discussion is really to make it look like I didn't
really choose to help Russia solo so I have an angle to play with
if I need to change tactic for some reason.
In truth, I think that helping Russia solo is really my best bet as it
give me a chance to become part of Russia's line instead of being
surrounded by him. I also doubt I can play both side against the
others in the long run, so I need to become an important part of
the front if I want to be part of a draw.
Hopefully, Andy's will think twice before taking me out if there's
some hope of turning me against Russia; but there's a chance this
discussion will simply annoy him.
Message from Russia to Austria
As usual I'm just having trouble finding time.
I did just get a message from France that also indicates an interest in
moving on Italy first, letting England come after me and then he'll worry
about England later. Can't say that I blame him.
I still haven't looked carefully at the map, but I'll try to respond to your
points from memory (I am reading press, I'm just not getting a chance to do
anything with it!)
I completely agree with your analysis in the north -- the question isn't can
I keep the north, the question is how hard to I make it for Ben to make
progress. It's better for me if France doesn't get too big, because at this
point there is almost no way I can get to Tun before him, so I may decide to
make it easy on England in the short term.
Unfortunately my mail client at work doesn't have your move suggestions (I
usually try to leave them there), so I don't have your suggestions re: Gal at
hand. The problem is that the only way to be SURE it retreats south is to use
*all* of the units around there to help it get there.
It comes down to (1) do we support Tri-Bud, (2) how do we attack Tyl, (3) do
I try to take Bla or Bul. Ser-Bul, Sev S Rum-Bla would work, Sev S Rum, Rum S
Ser-Bul would work if Jason is helping Andy with Gal (by either tapping Boh
or moving to Bud). Rum-Bul, Ser S Rum-Bul is also possible, but I'm not sure
if that's a good idea in case it fails.
Sadly, I've written a lot without saying anything. My gut says that Jason
will not be cooperating too closely with Andy (given some press from Jason
saying that Erik will be keeping Andy busy). Given that, I can try Mun-Tyl,
Boh S Mun-Tyl, Sil ???, War S Ukr-Gal, and then either of the fleet movements
listed above. This leaves you free to order Vie S Tri-Bud or Vie S Mun-Tyl
depending on your expectations of Jason (would he order Gal-Boh?).
Since I'm doing this from scratch, I may just be repeating your suggestions
back to you. I know that at least some of the above moves are based on your
suggestions, so hopefully there's a reasonable correlation between our
suggestions.
I'll be busy this afternoon, but I'll try to be responsive.
--- Eric
Message from Austria to Russia
> As usual I'm just having trouble finding time.
>
> I did just get a message from France that also indicates an interest in
> moving on Italy first, letting England come after me and then he'll worry
> about England later. Can't say that I blame him.
Well, any moves against his neighbours is preferable to his
remaining neutral. I'm afraid that if he stay put long enough
he will get use to it :-)
> I still haven't looked carefully at the map, but I'll try to respond to your
> points from memory (I am reading press, I'm just not getting a chance to do
> anything with it!)
>
> I completely agree with your analysis in the north -- the question isn't can
> I keep the north, the question is how hard to I make it for Ben to make
> progress. It's better for me if France doesn't get too big, because at this
> point there is almost no way I can get to Tun before him, so I may decide to
> make it easy on England in the short term.
With a good chance of France moving against Italy, I would
suggest making sure your fleet will be destroyed without
making it look like you wished it so. Den-Hel, Stp-Nwy
supported by Swe is totally ineffective, yet it can look like
a gamble on your part. Once in Hel, it's pretty safe to
assume England will make sure to eliminate your fleet, wich
would prevent him from sending his fleets too far in your
direction. Of course, in the long run losing your fleet in the
north hurt you, but we can always hope to rebuild a navy
later on, even having me dislodge a russian army so it can
be converted into a fleet when you aren't getting builds if
we need to.
> Unfortunately my mail client at work doesn't have your move suggestions (I
> usually try to leave them there), so I don't have your suggestions re: Gal at
> hand. The problem is that the only way to be SURE it retreats south is to use
> *all* of the units around there to help it get there.
Yet, not to dislodged it, and maybe forced its destruction,
mean that you have to occupy all the sc bordering Gal and
that we can't totally trust the support from all adjacent
territories. Unless you expect Jason to select Gal for
removal soon, I don't think you can afford to wait before
taking step to deal with Gal.
> It comes down to (1) do we support Tri-Bud, (2) how do we attack Tyl, (3) do
> I try to take Bla or Bul. Ser-Bul, Sev S Rum-Bla would work, Sev S Rum, Rum S
> Ser-Bul would work if Jason is helping Andy with Gal (by either tapping Boh
> or moving to Bud). Rum-Bul, Ser S Rum-Bul is also possible, but I'm not sure
> if that's a good idea in case it fails.
>
> Sadly, I've written a lot without saying anything. My gut says that Jason
> will not be cooperating too closely with Andy (given some press from Jason
> saying that Erik will be keeping Andy busy). Given that, I can try Mun-Tyl,
> Boh S Mun-Tyl, Sil ???, War S Ukr-Gal, and then either of the fleet movements
> listed above. This leaves you free to order Vie S Tri-Bud or Vie S Mun-Tyl
> depending on your expectations of Jason (would he order Gal-Boh?).
>
> Since I'm doing this from scratch, I may just be repeating your suggestions
> back to you. I know that at least some of the above moves are based on your
> suggestions, so hopefully there's a reasonable correlation between our
> suggestions.
>
> I'll be busy this afternoon, but I'll try to be responsive.
OK. I will deal with 3 first. However cooperative or
uncooperative Jason will be, I think Bul(ec) is a dead end
of the worst kind. If he get Aeg to Con, his control of Bla
& Con will allow him to block your expansion for a long
time, without some lucky guess on your part, and put your
fleet in Bul(ec) at risk.
Next, given my opinion regarding Rum's destination, I must
say that I don't think sending Ukr to Gal is a good idea as it
would be needed to cover Rum in the fall. My original plan
was to order Ukr-Rum & Ser-Bul in the hope of bouncing
Jason's attempt at getting Rum back. Unless Jason's been
misleading you, we would have one less army to worry
about in the fall; but if no attempt on Rum is made from
either Gal or Bul, Ukr would end up in Rum and allow Gal
to retreat to Ukr causing all sorts of trouble. I tend to think
that the risk is very limited since he will surely want to cut
a possible support from Rum; but if you are worried about
the possibility, I would suggest going for Sil-Gal supported by
War instead of War-Gal supported by Sil like I originally
suggested, this way an army would be in position to cover
Mos if necessary, or simply hold in Ukr and accept to see
Gal go back to Rum.
As for 1 & 2, unless you tell me that you want to leave Gal
alone this spring, the attack on Tyr as to come from Mun
and be supported by Boh while Tri go to Bud. As for Vie,
it depend. The turkish army in Gal border 4 sc and I would
expect Jason to either try for Bud or Rum, both also
bordering 4 sc. I think it's more likely that Gal will try for
Rum, so we could decide to make sure Mun-Tyr succeed,
even against a supported attack by Andy. Since an army
in Tyr making it easier to regain Tri in the fall, it's tempting
to try it; but since this extra army is only going to be usefull
if Tri-Bud also succeed, I prefer to bet on Andy only using
Pie for Tyr then on Jason leaving Bud alone.
Since I migth not be there to check my email later on, I'm
ordering Tri-Bud supported by Vie at the moment; but as
soon as you can, let me know what you think of all this in
case I get to read it in time to change my orders if you so
wishes.
Yours truly,
Philippe
Message from Russia to Austria
I'll see if I get any feedback from Ben about the north. There may be a way
to disband the fleet that he agrees to that I can live with. If that gets
worked out, I'll probably just go with it and then tell you about it after
the fact.
> However cooperative or uncooperative Jason will be,
> I think Bul(ec) is a dead end of the worst kind.
Yeah, I have to agree with this.
> Next, given my opinion regarding Rum's destination, I must
> say that I don't think sending Ukr to Gal is a good idea as it
> would be needed to cover Rum in the fall. My original plan
> was to order Ukr-Rum & Ser-Bul in the hope of bouncing
> Jason's attempt at getting Rum back.
I see. I'm inferring you said Rum-Bla, Sev S Rum-Bla. If that's the case,
then as you note, I don't mind Jason getting to Rum, and Ukr-Gal is certainly
bad in that instance. Perhaps Ukr S War-Gal.
> Unless Jason's been misleading you,
Quite possible, but Erik seemed to echo what Jason said about France's plans,
so there is some confirmation there.
> I would suggest going for Sil-Gal supported by
> War instead of War-Gal supported by Sil like I originally
> suggested, this way an army would be in position to cover
> Mos if necessary, or simply hold in Ukr and accept to see
> Gal go back to Rum.
I would like to keep Sil in place to ensure I can hold Mun. But I'll have to
look at the possible impact of having Gal/Ukr/Sev trying to eliminate Rum if
I let him go there. Ukr-Rum trying to bounce him is not an unreasonable
choice, though that's where the idea of Sev S Rum, Rum S Ser-Bul came from.
(Allows Ukr-Gal to succeed with certainty, while maintaining a chance of
picking up Bul at the same time).
> As for 1 & 2, unless you tell me that you want to leave Gal
> alone this spring, the attack on Tyr as to come from Mun
> and be supported by Boh while Tri go to Bud. As for Vie,
> it depend.
No, we need to hit Gal. The gamble on Bud is entirely yours to make. If you
want to gamble on Gal-Rum, that works for me, but I think you probably should
just go ahead with Vie S Tri-Bud if you want to ensure that you keep two
units (if Tri-Bud bounces, then you are down a unit that would be nearly
impossible to replace, since your home centers would either be covered or
unowned). Just tell me what you want to do and I'll deal with it either way.
> I prefer to bet on Andy only using
> Pie for Tyr then on Jason leaving Bud alone.
As I said, your call.
Any thoughts on the Sev S Rum option?
--- Eric
Message from Austria to Russia
> Any thoughts on the Sev S Rum option?
I think not going for Bla when it is a sure bet would be a
mistake that could cost you the south if Jason send Aeg
to Con; but I also agree that keeping your army in Sil is
important for Mun.
If Jason isn't too worried about Andy, I would expect
him to go for either:
1) Aeg-Con, Gal-Bud & Bul-Rum supported by Bla
or
2) Aeg-Con, Bla-Sev, Gal-Rum supported by Bul
In both cases, a turkish army attack Rum and bounce
with Ukr-Rum. Of course, I might be wrong about this
and accepting the presence of a turkish army in Rum
this fall by ordering Ukr to hold might be more to your
taste as Gal would get destroyed anyway if the attack
on Rum come from Bul.
So, I suggest you forget about moving Sil and go for
War-Gal supported by Sil with either Ukr hold or
Ukr-Rum.
Good luck,
Philippe
Message from Russia to Austria
Philippe,
Well, after studying the map this evening, I came up with a slightly
different twist. So I submitted orders with an error and went late. :)
After seeing that, I went back and fixed the orders. I'm going to go with
some orders that should ensure the destruction of A Gal, and won't get me
in Black, but should still give me a 50-50 chance of taking the Black in
the Fall. Specifically, Sev-Arm, Rum-Sev, Ser-Rum, Ukr S Ser-Rum. It's an
odd set of moves, but it should put pressure on Turkey's home centers in
Fall, which may allow taking Bla or sneaking into Ank.
Since Erik is late again, you may get a chance to comment on these orders
before the moves process. Let me know if you have any "what the hell are
you thinking" comments about this moveset. :)
--- Eric
Message from Austria to Russia
> Since Erik is late again, you may get a chance to comment on these orders
> before the moves process. Let me know if you have any "what the hell are
> you thinking" comments about this moveset. :)
Weird, but might work. You're trading the risk of no bounce
in Rum with Gal sent to Ukr for no army in Ser to help with
Tri in the fall and I can't say I like this trade very much. On
the other hand, if the takeover of Bla in the fall work, you're
one step of ahead then you would have been as Sev will stay
open for a build whenever you get the chance.
On the northern front, what have you been able to manage?
Philippe
Message from Russia to Austria
Philippe,
Let me give you more of my thinking (I sent that last message as I was
getting off the computer to go to bed).
The problems I was trying to balance are these:
First, if I were Jason I would order Bul S Bla-Rum, not Bla S Bul-Rum. The
chance of having A Bul disbanded is just not worth taking. So if we assume
he moves that way, then Rum-Bla, Sev S Rum-Bla, Ser-Bul, Gal-Bud leaves Rum
open for a retreat. While I do end up in Bla, with a hopeless army in Rum
Jason has to order Rum-Sev (cutting support for F Bla) and then Con S
Ank-Bla or vice-versa. Net result is that I lose Bla, and Jason ends up
with three fleets on Bla if he wants (he's losing an army but likely not
losing an SC) Bla, Con, Ank).
If Jason does move Bul-Rum, Bla S Bul-Rum, then your suggested bounce
(Ukr-Rum) works, but if I do Ukr-Rum and he moves as we discussed above,
Ukr-Rum is not bounced (Rum-Bul succeeds, so Bla-Rum does not bounce
Ukr-Rum) and Jason ends up in Ukr.
With Sev-Arm, Rum-Sev, I threaten Ank and Bla. If I guess right on how to
respond, then he ends up with a maximum of two fleets on the Bla, which
slows him down some.
So I'm agreeing with your assessment that he's like to order one or the
other of those moves. If he orders Bul-Ser then we're in a weird (and bad)
position, so I'm definitely betting that he's not doing that.
If Ser being potentially open is too big a gamble, I could try Ser-Bul,
Ukr-Rum, Sev-Arm, Rum-Sev. The downside is that if he moves Bul-Rum with
support, then he's got a two units on Sev. He can't take it (I can cut all
the supports) but it means that I can't force Black without losing Rum in
the process. Hmm. But if we abandon the idea of taking back Bla, then we
can take Rum while we have a chance of holding Bul, potentially forcing him
down a unit. That could work, though there's more guessing on our part.
Let me know what you think.
--- Eric
Message from Russia to Austria
[resend with a fix]
>If Jason does move Bul-Rum, Bla S Bul-Rum, then your suggested bounce
>(Ukr-Rum) works, but if I do Ukr-Rum and he moves as we discussed above,
>Ukr-Rum is not bounced (Rum-Bul succeeds, so Bla-Rum does not bounce
>Ukr-Rum) and Jason ends up in Ukr.
No idea if you even want to read this closely, but in the parentheses it
should say "Rum-Bla" succeeds, not "Rum-Bul".
--- Eric
Message from Austria to Russia
Since both Bul & Bla can't be protected against a decisive
attack this spring, the only reason to favor the protection
of Bul over Bla is the possibility of losing it, but he's got no
reason to do so as Bul can retreat to Gre since it's unlikely
it's going to be attacked (in fact, I'm pretty sure they would
like nothing more then see Ser commit suicide with Ser-Gre).
In consequence, I would expect him to make sure either
Gal or Bul attack Rum as a bet on the low probability you
would try to get Bla from Sev as a strong move. As for Bla,
it would depend on what he think you will do, even Bla-Rum
& Bul-Rum as a self-bounce to keep both Bla & Bul in place
while Gal is playing elsewhere is a valid strategy. With your
plan, if he goes for that last choice, you get in Rum and we
lose the support of Ser for the fall.
Anyway, let's hope you make the best decision,
Philippe.
P.-S. Still no feedback from you concerning the north, am I
suppose to butt out of it or were you simply more concerned
with the south ;-)
Message from Russia to Austria
Re the north:
LOL! No, wasn't meaning you should butt out. I just don't have much info. All
I've heard is what I've already shared with you. Erik implies he's heading
towards Italy. Ben says that he's coming after me, but sounds like he's
looking to do it in a way that doesn't commit him to the north (meaning, he's
worried about Erik too). I doubt I've got an "alliance" with either of them,
but both sound willing to at least consider working with me once I've been
"pruned" back a little. :)
Re the south:
I assumed that Andy WILL move to Gre. If you think there's a real chance he
won't, why is that? F Gre can offer support to Bul (I've been assuming that
taking Bul is not really possible whatever happens elsewhere) and it also
puts Andy in position to start taking Turkish centers if Turkey falls too
hard. (Andy hasn't told me anything about what he will do -- this is just my
expectation.)
--- Eric
Message from Austria to Russia
> Re the north:
>
> LOL! No, wasn't meaning you should butt out. I just don't have much info. All
> I've heard is what I've already shared with you. Erik implies he's heading
> towards Italy. Ben says that he's coming after me, but sounds like he's
> looking to do it in a way that doesn't commit him to the north (meaning, he's
> worried about Erik too). I doubt I've got an "alliance" with either of them,
> but both sound willing to at least consider working with me once I've been
> "pruned" back a little. :)
So, you might not need to lose your fleet then.
Good, really good :-)
> Re the south:
>
> I assumed that Andy WILL move to Gre. If you think there's a real chance he
> won't, why is that? F Gre can offer support to Bul (I've been assuming that
> taking Bul is not really possible whatever happens elsewhere) and it also
> puts Andy in position to start taking Turkish centers if Turkey falls too
> hard. (Andy hasn't told me anything about what he will do -- this is just my
> expectation.)
Didn't hear anything regarding Gre, just went
with my expectation. No point rushing to help
Bul if you force it's destruction by doing so.
Philippe
Message from Russia to Austria
> Didn't hear anything regarding Gre, just went
> with my expectation. No point rushing to help
> Bul if you force it's destruction by doing so.
Interesting point. Tactically I don't think them losing Bul because of F Gre
is that big a problem if they are cooperating; they would still have a three
strength attack that guarantees them retaking it in the Fall with (Gal
retreats to Rum, then Bla and Gre support Rum-Bul in Fall). Jason might not
like the idea of losing a unit, but he already disbanded Ser instead of
retreating into Gre, so that also influenced why I thought Gre was for sure
Andy's. However Andy expects Spa-Wes -- which may well happen -- then Andy
might leave Ion in place for defense.
Ultimately it's all a guessing game; I don't have enough info about how Andy
and Jason are or are not cooperating to make a real guess. If I take Bla and
Andy takes Gre, Jason will end up with A Rum, A Bul and a friendly F Gre,
which means that I can't take Bul or hold Bla, so the shift to Arm is better.
If they don't have F Gre, me having A Ser and F Bla is much better, since
there is a potential attack available on Bul.
--- Eric
Austria: Army Trieste → Budapest
Austria: Army Vienna SUPPORT Army Trieste → Budapest
England: Fleet Berlin → Baltic Sea (*bounce*)
England: Army Edinburgh → North Sea → Holland
England: Fleet Kiel → Denmark
England: Fleet North Atlantic Ocean → Norwegian Sea
England: Fleet North Sea CONVOY Army Edinburgh → Holland
England: Fleet Skagerrak SUPPORT Fleet Kiel → Denmark
France: Army Belgium HOLD
France: Army Burgundy → Marseilles
France: Fleet Marseilles → Gulf of Lyon
France: Army Paris → Burgundy
France: Fleet Portugal → Mid-Atlantic Ocean
France: Fleet Spain (south coast) → Western Mediterranean
Italy: Fleet Adriatic Sea SUPPORT Army Venice → Trieste
Italy: Fleet Albania SUPPORT Army Venice → Trieste
Italy: Fleet Ionian Sea → Greece
Italy: Army Piedmont → Tyrolia (*bounce*)
Italy: Army Venice → Trieste
Russia: Army Bohemia SUPPORT Army Munich → Tyrolia
Russia: Fleet Denmark → Baltic Sea (*bounce, dislodged*)
Russia: Army Munich → Tyrolia
Russia: Fleet Rumania → Sevastopol
Russia: Army Serbia → Rumania (*bounce*)
Russia: Fleet Sevastopol → Armenia
Russia: Army Silesia SUPPORT Army Warsaw → Galicia
Russia: Army St Petersburg → Norway
Russia: Army Sweden SUPPORT Army St Petersburg → Norway
Russia: Army Ukraine SUPPORT Army Serbia → Rumania
Russia: Army Warsaw → Galicia
Turkey: Fleet Aegean Sea → Constantinople
Turkey: Fleet Black Sea SUPPORT Army Galicia → Rumania
Turkey: Army Bulgaria SUPPORT Army Galicia → Rumania
Turkey: Army Galicia → Rumania
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