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Turkey: Army Bulgaria can retreat to Constantinople
Italy: Army Tuscany can retreat to Rome
Message from France to Russia
Eric:
I figured you would end up in Munich, but I needed to take a poke at it to
ameliorate Ben. You'll note that I refrained from moving to Ruhr, both in
the interest of Homeland Security and as a deference to your claim on the
land of Oktoberfest.
Now we find ourselves facing the Italy question. Obviously, having an
enraged, vengence-bent Andy is useful for you, but is it as useful as a
couple of quick builds? I would like to ask you to seriously consider
moving Tyr - Tri and *not* ordering A Tyr S A Ven. I need to get another
build in Par or Bre to keep England in check, and wouldn't you like a
build, too? I daresay that your odds of keeping Sweden are slim, so Tyr -
Ven, Ser - Gre seem like good choices for you.
Erik
Message from France to England
Ben:
I know, I didn't move to Ruhr, but I figured that Munich was a lost cause
right now, and I got some last minute jitters about that fleet in London.
Old worries die hard.
On the plus side, you've got a great shot at Sweden and I've got a good
shot at Venice, so if I can weasel my way into Tyrolia, we should be okay.
I'm going to need another fleet down South soon, though, if I'm to keep
Russia from breaking out into the Med.
Thoughts?
Erik
Message from France to France
I know I haven't spoken to the peanut gallery in ... well, ages, but I will
admit this: not moving to Ruhr was dumb, dumb, dumb. I got some bad cold
feet, and it may well cost us dearly. With A Ruhr, Eric would have been
forced to support Munich from Tyr and Sil, leaving Ven undefended. Now he
can hold Munich from Sil, support Ven from Tyr and take Trieste from
Serbia. I just didn't think enough in advance. My only hope is to appeal
to Eric's greed and convince him to basically give me Venice, which if
he's smart, he won't do.
Erik
Message from England to France
Erik -
> I know, I didn't move to Ruhr, but I figured that Munich was a lost cause
> right now, and I got some last minute jitters about that fleet in London.
> Old worries die hard.
If you'd gone to RUH, then TYR would now be overloaded, supporting MUN and
VEN.
Be suspicious of me if you want - but next time, let me know ahead of time,
so we can weigh the options together.
> On the plus side, you've got a great shot at Sweden and I've got a good
> shot at Venice, so if I can weasel my way into Tyrolia, we should be okay.
> I'm going to need another fleet down South soon, though, if I'm to keep
> Russia from breaking out into the Med.
>
> Thoughts?
We're on the right track now. SWE this year, STP this year or next. BER
is safe as long as Russia gets no builds in STP. If he does, then our
failure to attack VEN/MUN this fall could end up being catastrophic. . .
Hopefully that will not come to pass.
Ben
Message from France to England
>
> If you'd gone to RUH, then TYR would now be overloaded, supporting MUN
> and
> VEN.
I'm well aware, and I apologize profusely for my stupidity and paranoia. I
realized this just as the moves processed. I wasn't thinking, just
reacting to a lingering suspicion. The lesson here is to never change your
plans at the last second without examining everything again. Even when you
think you know the consequences, you don't.
Clearly, had I thought it out, I would have seen, yet again, that the only
way Eric can be guaranteed a victory at this point is if you and I attempt
any attack against the other, and I would have realized that you see this,
too. But anyway. I can keep an army in Pie this turn, move to Bur, and
then we can cut Tyr's support next turn and get the advantage. As long as
Ber can hold until then, we could still get Munich.
> We're on the right track now. SWE this year, STP this year or next.
> BER
> is safe as long as Russia gets no builds in STP. If he does, then our
> failure to attack VEN/MUN this fall could end up being catastrophic. . .
> Hopefully that will not come to pass.
Not sure I follow. Is your primary concern a build of F Stp (sc)? Because
that's a definite possiblity -- Rum S Bul, so it's safe, Ser - Tri, Tyr S
Ven, Sil S Mun. The only question is whether StP remains open for a build,
and that comes down to a guessing game.
In any case, why is a StP build a particular threat to Ber? I am looking at
the map on a wireless device right now, so it's hard for me to see the big
picture. Maybe it will become evident at home tonight, but fill me in
anyway.
Erik
Message from France to England
Okay, I see the danger of a build of F Stp(sc). He can cut Bal's support of
Berlin, thereby necessitating Kiel S Ber, which in turns endangers Mun. As
I said, we can take Munich next turn just by cutting support from Tyr,
because he can't bring the crucial third unit. But with F Stp (later
moving to Livonia, potentially), we may not be able to hold it and Berlin.
We need to take Munich and hold it long enough to bring reinforcements if
we're going to win. Some thoughts:
1.) The only way for Russia to get a build (assuming the inevitable capture
of Sweden) is to take Trieste. This forces him to get F Gre to support
Bul, which gives me a better shot at Ion (for whatever that's worth). Any
miscommunication and Turkey *could* retake Bulgaria.
2.) Russia has to keep StP open for the build. That means either ordering
Fin - Stp, Mos - Stp. If you order F Bar - Stp and Nwy S Bar - Stp (or
vice versa), you might end up with StP; otherwise, it means he's ordered a
countering attack / support, and that leaves A Mos tied up where it is.
3.) To really beat us in Germany, he needs a build in StP and an army in
Lvn or War *this phase*. Since 2.) ensures that Mos is tied up (or he
loses StP), then the only option for getting to War is Ukr. That may or
may not move, but if it does, he's kind of stalemated down south for a
bit. Turkey's down to three centers, but he's got control of Bla and
support for Bla from Ank, and without a fleet in Aeg (which would mean
abandoning Greece) he can't crack Con.
So let's assume Ukr - War, Ser - Tri and a tied up Mos, with Russia
shooting for a build of F Stp (sc), and move from there. Anything else
(Mos not tied up, Ukr doesn't move to War), and out problems are greatly
minimized.
Thoughts?
Erik
Italy: Army Tuscany → Rome
Turkey: Army Bulgaria → Constantinople
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