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Italy: Removes 1 unit
Russia: Builds 2 units
Message from Russia to Italy
Andy,
So if you're still up to helping me solo, it should be a lot easier now. :)
Though I suspect that isn't on your agenda any more.
I truly expected Ser-Gre to bounce, and I Tri-Ven (without support) was just
a remnant from when I thought about moving Tri back as you had suggested. The
support for Jason to Smy was what I was getting at with the comment about not
being quite ready to give up on the possibility of a solo. I really did think
REI was the most likely result, and figured that after this season I'd
probably come out even and then just hunker down quietly into a 3way. But
after screwing a really good opportunity to be aggressive last season, I felt
like I had to take a chance on something this season.
I'm assuming that with my moves (and based on the silence that followed them)
that any sort of RI coordination is out of the question. I certainly can't
blame you if that's the case. If I'm wrong and you want to work something
out, I'm here. Actually, even if I'm right, I'm still here and open to
discussion, berating, or whatever.
In any case, I think we can both agree that I'll be the one to do the
treating at our next sushi lunch. :) Maybe we can do that next month in
Portland, since I'm still considering attending.
--- Eric
Message from Russia to Germany
Well, after cursing my last moves in press to self, I promised myself I would
at least try to do something more daring this season. Now I'm wondering if it
wasn't overall a good thing (in a "dumb luck" sort of way) to have made such
a wussy set of moves in Spring. I had zero expectation of the moves working
that way. I expected Ion-Gre to bounce me, and I *never* expected Tri-Ven to
succeed.
I guess the best move now is to try pushing into Italy proper. I'm guessing
that Andy will disband F Bul,, try to convoy to Alb, and then support Ben
against Erik. Any reason you can see not to build F Sev? And any thoughts on
trying for Bur vs. moving Ven into Italy and backfilling with Tyl and Boh
(Andy can't cover all of Rom, Apu, Tus and Pie after all).
--- Eric
Message from Russia to Turkey
Well, that was more what I was hoping for, but now you're kind of stuck in
corner of the map. I'd like to suggest that we sail you out into the Ion,
where you could maybe pick up Tun or Nap. That helps me in that it gets
another fleet into the Med, helps you in that it gives you a(n outside)
chance at an SC to hang onto to get into a draw.
The only other option I see for you is to work with Andy, which might be more
interesting for you, but would definitely encourage me to try to take your
last center.
If you are willing to try for Tun/Nap/Ion, I'm happy to leave Smy in your
hands until we can get you a replacement center. Obviously it would also be
sort of held hostage, but as I've said all along, you've got a fleet in the
Med there, and I need fleets for the Med, so it's in my best interests to
keep that fleet alive (at least, if it's working for me).
Let me know what you want to do.
--- Eric
Message from Russia to France
Well, with giving up Bul I certainly did not expect to get a build, let alone
two. I'm betting that was a mixed blessing for you. On the one hand, my moves
keep Andy from being able to put TOO much pressure on you. On the other hand,
they make it more likely that he'll try to help Ben to spite me, and they
make me look a LOT more dangerous than I was.
I can't think of many ways that we could cooperate that wouldn't be risky for
you, and you may be more interested in a stop-the-leader coalition. But if
you wanted to, I could see you supporting me (or Turkey) into Ion, and then
making a push for Italy proper. If I took Ion, I could support you into Tys,
then Nap. I haven't looked to figure out if that gets you a build soon enough
to actually help your position, but it's the only southern cooperation I can
imagine.
In the north, Mar is vulnerable, but I don't know what Andy's going to do. If
he disbands Pie, then you're probably in good shape short term, but even if
Ben backs off of you I can't see Andy working to get you builds, which means
that when (and if) you two stalemate me, Ben will sweep in and try for a solo
or to reduce the draw down.
So how do you want to proceed?
--- Eric
Message from Russia to England
Well, that did not go *at all* according to plan. I mean, it was good for me
and all, but I fully expected to end up even in centers (Ion-Gre and Ven H or
Rom-Ven were my expectation). That makes 2-way discussions a bit more risky.
Though for all I know Andy is going to want to try to help you solo now, so
maybe they're as risky for me as they are for you. I hope at least that my
not moving to Fin helps you maintain some level of comfort that I'm still
trying to stay in line with you.
What's your thinking at this point?
--- Eric
Message from Russia to Russia
You have got to be kidding me. I cannot believe I got those builds, and I
have to admit, I'm not completely sure if it was helpful, or if it's more
likely to cause an E solo. Though I can't see that it'd be easy for Andy to
create the E solo.
What I wrote to others was the honest truth -- I figured Ser-Gre would
bounce, and Tri-Ven was a throwaway move that was in place from when I
thought about moving Mun-Bur and Tyl-Mun or Tyl-Pie -- it was intended to
cover Tri defensively, much as Tyl-Ven, Tri-Ven did last season.
I did think I had to get Andy down to two units if I was to have a shot of
keeping Erik alive (and Ben from soloing) long enough to get to at least the
2WD line and maybe push for a solo. With Andy at three and holding Bul, I've
stumbled into meeting that requirement, though I didn't want Erik threatened
at the same time. Heck, if I knew the other moves were going to work, I would
have tried harder to get Erik into Mun.
I'm not sure what Rom-Apu was for. It could have been Andy moving to set up a
DMZed border if I really moved away from Tri as I implied I would. It also
looks like a potential set up to convoy into Gre or Alb (which now I might
have to expect). I suspect a little of both is the reality.
In any case, I'm expecting Andy will now try to throw to Ben, but we'll see
what we can do. Assuming a complete and trusting stop-the-leader board
alliance, Andy would probably disband Pie (for goodwill with Erik) and moves
would be something like Ion-Adr, Tun-Ion, Wes-Tys, Apu-Rom/Ven (to block
either Ven-Rom or Tyl-Ven), Bul-Con, Smy S Bul-Con. Or Bul-Con, Smy S
Ion-Aeg, Tun-Ion. Either moveset sets up a convoy from Apu into Gre, and
gives Erik a chance to protect Rom on Andy's behalf (and a long shot at a
convoy into Rom or Tus). This all assumes that Jason and Erik choose to help
Andy, and that Erik trusts Ben to back off while he comes after me, and that
Ben actually does. The odds on all of those happening seem rather long, so
that gives me some comfort too.
Beyond that, Andy can try to hurt Erik to help Ben, which would probably mean
disbanding F Bul, then taking Mar, and trying to support Ben into the
Med/Tun. Which could lead to an E solo, depending on how quickly Erik falls,
or could actually help get us to a 2way as well. At some point though, I'm
going to have to hand over StP. As long as I hold it, it'll be clear to Ben
that I'm not serious about a 2way. Which I'm not yet.
The Ser-Gre move, while expected to bounce, was still clearly hostile, as it
gave me a chance to support myself into Gre or Bul next season.Overall, this
is the first time I ever recall (in my diplomacy career) making a move that
truly tries to force myself towards a solo instead of trying to diplom my way
into one (as I had been with Phillipe (Philippe?), Tony, Andy, Erik and Jason
at various points in the game).
So frankly, even if these moves turn out to be a bad choice, I'm feeling good
about finally having made an out-and-out aggressive move, especially after
that lousy set of choices last season. It completely violates my conservative
tendencies of not having a player (like Andy) who is in a key position
dislike me more than another player that is potentially able to win (Ben).
But still, even though it may have been the wussy moves last season that set
everything up for this season's success, it really was just dumb luck that my
Fall moves were so successful.
--- Eric
Italy: REMOVE Fleet Bulgaria (south coast)
Russia: BUILD Fleet Sevastopol
Russia: BUILD Army Warsaw
Centers
England: 11
France: 5
Italy: 3
Russia: 14
Turkey: 1
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