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England: Fleet Berlin can retreat to Kiel
Message from England to Italy
Andy -
I'd ordered the retreat to KIE but now I'm not so sure - the other option
is to disband and force HOL to KIE, putting an army in there instead. . .
Am I overthinking it?
Wait is set.
Ben
Message from Italy to England
> Am I overthinking it?
No...
Can you afford 2 disbands.
Andy
Message from Italy to England
Ben,
Just to be clear, I dont think you will have 2 disbands, but if for
whatever reason that happens, can you afford it.
Andy
Message from Russia to England
Oooh, and I thought about just holding in Lvn too. Really I did. Oh well.
I'm now open to that 2way talk again, as soloing seems very unlikely, and
it's looking a lot like a three way if we keep down this path. I expect
you'll want to force things for the Fall (though tell me if I'm mistaken
there) but if things go even partway how I expect, we can get out of each
others' hair and setup for either a quick three way, or look at pushing it
back down to a two way.
Let me know what you're thinking.
Oh, and I'm out of town from mid-week to mid-week. So in addition to the
lovely delay I caused this week, I'll cause another next week. :)
--- Eric
Message from Russia to France
Well, I'm not sure how to read those moves! Given our lack of coordination,
I guess it was good that I bounced Ion, but maybe I should have let you in.
Any chance I can interest you in taking Andy's centers instead of pressing
east? At this point I'm pretty well boxed in. I figure we're looking at an
EFR three way, and having those raiding Italian units removed is probably
worth not having to spend the extra 3-6 turns chasing them down and
eliminating them.
Whatcha think?
--- Eric
Message from Russia to Italy
Sorry about the delay.
Yeah, I thought about covering Tyl in a couple of ways. Oh well, nice
coordination all around -- solo seems very unlikely now.
I have to say though that I'm surprised that you are willing to fall on
your sword on Erik's behalf -- yes, he *might* leave you around and alive,
but while you have almost certainly stopped any chance for me to solo with
those moves (and just as much, with the EF coordination) I can't see how
you're going to keep Erik from eliminating you. With your moves keeping me
from being able to grow much, you don't really have much throw leverage
left anymore. And with Ben backing off so far, there's not much threat from
Ben to keep him "in line".
I guess our interaction the last few turns makes it hard to differentiate
between an Eric and an Erik. :) Can't blame you too much!
--- Eric
Message from Russia to Turkey
Jason,
Well, I guess it was good that I bounced Erik out of the Ion, but it's not
looking good for us taking it next season. I think there's a chance that
Erik might try for Rom/Nap, though, in which case you could still get there.
What do you think?
--- Eric
Message from Russia to Germany
Tony,
>stp - fin (slow him down)
>a lvn - stp supported by mos (dont want to lose stp)
>ven - tus
>tyr - tri
I had second thoughts about these given what happened, but not large enough
to stop me. Oh well, the solo looks very unlikely now. The biggest bummer
is that useless army stuck in Fin.
>war - sil
>sil - mun supported by boh
>mun - tyr
Well, taking Ber *would* have been a good move if not for Pie-Tyl.
--- Eric
Message from Germany to Russia
Hello Eric, well who would have guessed that he would convoy BRE - NWY.
In hindsight stp - nwy along with lvn - stp supported by mos would have been
better. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.
Anyway the fact that EF called a truce was a problem anyway.
I only see that the southern moves suggestion around VEN/TRI were better.
Italy moved on ADR as guessed. Ben may have to disband one but he has a
spare fleet in NAO.
PIE - TYR is indeed a real pain. Oh well, I wonder if you will be able to
diplome a 3 way with EF.
These would be ny moves
a stp - lvn supported by mos
a pru s stp - lvn
fin - nwy
sil - war
boh - vie
ven - tri supported by alb
mun - kie
ber s mun - kie
bul - gre
eas - ion supported by aeg
con - smy
bla - bul
I would sell the turk that the circumstances call for him to be kept in the
draw until Italy is removed.
Good luck, it does indeed look like a threesome. I blame you anyway for not
listening earlier ;-)
Tony
Message from Italy to England
Ben,
You have always been forthright about wanting to work with me, and keeping
me in this draw.
If this is the case, you need to make it indelibly clear to Erik that if
he tries to eliminate me, Eric will likely solo. He needs to hear it from
you.
thanks
Andy
Message from England to France
Erik -
I got a note from Andy that suggests to me he's worried you're going to
attack him.
I have no idea what made him think this, but if you were thinking about it,
let me say, I don't think now is the time. Unfortunately I lost BER, which
means the Italian centers are extremely important, and for now the presence
of the Turkish fleet means we need Andy around - you may not be able to
protect the Italian centers *and* hold of the RT in the south.
I am of course not wedded to this long-term - I don't care to have a 4- or
5- way draw - but if you are planning on simplifying by eliminating Italy,
let's coordinate and discuss first.
Ben
Message from England to Italy
Andy -
> Just to be clear, I dont think you will have 2 disbands, but if for
> whatever reason that happens, can you afford it.
What's at the bottom of the Cracker Jack box?
> If this is the case, you need to make it indelibly clear to Erik that if
> he tries to eliminate me, Eric will likely solo. He needs to hear it from
> you.
Ok, I've written him. But why? Is he saber rattling, or making you
nervous by being there?
Ben
Message from England to Russia
Eric -
> Oooh, and I thought about just holding in Lvn too. Really I did. Oh well.
Too bad for you, Mr. Stabber.
> I'm now open to that 2way talk again, as soloing seems very unlikely, and
> it's looking a lot like a three way if we keep down this path. I expect
> you'll want to force things for the Fall (though tell me if I'm mistaken
> there) but if things go even partway how I expect, we can get out of each
> others' hair and setup for either a quick three way, or look at pushing it
> back down to a two way.
Well, obviously a two-way will call for some (a) concessions or (b) poor
guesses by you, as you currently have too many of the northern border
provinces. But that can be arranged, in time, if you're serious. It will
have to happen while things are still unsettled in the south, otherwise it
will be too obvious; perhaps I will catch you as you shift to the south or
something, whether we arrange it ahead of time or not. Anyway, of course I
am open to discussions. My plans for the fall are not sorted yet, though I
do imagine it's time for me to seize the god-forsaken tundra of Saint Pete.
> Let me know what you're thinking.
*sniff* You've taken Berlin. [wipes eyes]
> Oh, and I'm out of town from mid-week to mid-week. So in addition to the
> lovely delay I caused this week, I'll cause another next week. :)
Oh, great. Mr. Tardy Stabber.
Ben
Message from Italy to England
Ben,
> > Just to be clear, I dont think you will have 2 disbands, but if for
> > whatever reason that happens, can you afford it.
> What's at the bottom of the Cracker Jack box?
Position....really important position.
My feeling is that you will disband 1. And get it back next year, plus
some.
> > If this is the case, you need to make it indelibly clear to Erik that if
> > he tries to eliminate me, Eric will likely solo. He needs to hear it from
> > you.
> Ok, I've written him. But why? Is he saber rattling, or making you
> nervous by being there?
No he hasnt, but I am basically at his mercy. And he and I have a history
that makes Newt Gingrich and Teddy Kennedy seem like lifelong pals.
Message from England to Italy
Andy -
> > > Just to be clear, I dont think you will have 2 disbands, but if for
> > > whatever reason that happens, can you afford it.
> > What's at the bottom of the Cracker Jack box?
>
> Position....really important position.
I *love* position. Plus if I disband F BER, that will ease the pain.
Which I understand you to be recommending, and is the order I have in.
> My feeling is that you will disband 1. And get it back next year, plus
> some.
You are on the edge of a knife right now. I am not - I can take risks for
position. What do you have in mind?
> > > If this is the case, you need to make it indelibly clear to Erik that
if
> > > he tries to eliminate me, Eric will likely solo. He needs to hear it
from
> > > you.
> > Ok, I've written him. But why? Is he saber rattling, or making you
> > nervous by being there?
>
> No he hasnt, but I am basically at his mercy. And he and I have a history
> that makes Newt Gingrich and Teddy Kennedy seem like lifelong pals.
Fine by me! Anyway, I've written him, as I said, asking him to lay off
you. Who knows if he will listen. If he'd stayed in BUR I'd still be in
Berlin. . . Oh, well. Not a priority for him, I suppose.
Ben
Message from Italy to England
> > > > Just to be clear, I dont think you will have 2 disbands, but if for
> > > > whatever reason that happens, can you afford it.
> > > What's at the bottom of the Cracker Jack box?
> > Position....really important position.
> I *love* position. Plus if I disband F BER, that will ease the pain.
> Which I understand you to be recommending, and is the order I have in.
Yes....you will get STP and rebuild a unit.
> > My feeling is that you will disband 1. And get it back next year, plus
> > some.
> You are on the edge of a knife right now. I am not - I can take risks for
> position. What do you have in mind?
Well...we can do this three ways, all of them help us both out.
1. We can support RUH - MUN and try to walk to KIE, if we decide to do
this, you will retreat to KIE instead of disbanding.
He has 3 supports for MUN; BOH, BER and SIL, and he has to play a guessing
game. BER will get cut, and PRU will be stuck supporting BER.
KIE to BER with support and HOL walking in behind him, will likely bounce
SIL will be in place, BOH will have to guess whether I am going move to
TYR or VIE or support the move, the problem with supporting the move is
that I can be cut from VEN or BOH.
2. We can do the same moves with TYR being the mover, TYR - MUN, with 2
supports, that are uncuttable, and BOH having all the same issues, but it
takes TYR from behind his lines and he will likely take it back next year.
3. Disband BER, RUH and BAL support HOL - KIE, and a rebuild.
I think #3 is the best option.
> Fine by me! Anyway, I've written him, as I said, asking him to lay off
> you. Who knows if he will listen. If he'd stayed in BUR I'd still be in
> Berlin. . . Oh, well. Not a priority for him, I suppose.
Yeah.
I will get VEN to replace the lost BUL, and I have a guessing game to play
with him on the other centers. Getting a build would make me a hell of
alot more comfortable.
Andy
Message from Italy to Russia
Eric,
> Yeah, I thought about covering Tyl in a couple of ways. Oh well, nice
> coordination all around -- solo seems very unlikely now.
I dont normally say something like this, but this is a *teaching* game for
many of our observers...so I will...
Never underestimate the short-sightedness of some players.
> I have to say though that I'm surprised that you are willing to fall on
> your sword on Erik's behalf -- yes, he *might* leave you around and alive,
> but while you have almost certainly stopped any chance for me to solo with
> those moves (and just as much, with the EF coordination) I can't see how
> you're going to keep Erik from eliminating you.
Erik and I have had that conversation and he knows the consequences of
attacking me at this juncture.
> I guess our interaction the last few turns makes it hard to differentiate
> between an Eric and an Erik. :) Can't blame you too much!
Why ....whatever do you mean....:-)
Message from Italy to England and France
Fellas,
We have several options this fall, and one of our choices affects the
retreats, so I will bring this up.
If we are going to try to take Munich, we need to retreat to Kiel, if we
are not, we need to retreat off the board.
There are MANY options here, I think the best option is to retreat off the
board and position for next year. I could also use a build.
It might be useful if Erik mentions to Eric that you are supporting me to
MUN, that will tie down a bunch of units and give me a shot to walk into
Vienna
But we should talk about this.
Andy
Message from France to England and Italy
Well, the loss of Berlin was unfortunate, but we're not in too bad a
position. Russia is basically at 17 (he can take Smyrna whenever he
chooses), so we need to move carefully.
We can and will take one of the following: Munich, Venice, Trieste, or
Vienna. He's going to have consider defenses against all of those, and he
doesn't have the power to hold them all. We also need to take Ion before
he gets Bul to Greece.
My recommendation would be: Rom - Ven, Tyr S Rom - Ven, Adr S Tun - Ion,
Lyo - Tus. Ber should retreat to Kiel to force a vigorous defense of
Munich on his part. Up north, Ben takes Fin.
Thoughts?
Erik
Message from Italy to England and France
> We can and will take one of the following: Munich, Venice, Trieste, or
> Vienna. He's going to have consider defenses against all of those, and he
> doesn't have the power to hold them all. We also need to take Ion before
> he gets Bul to Greece.
We will take VEN and maybe Vienna,Trieste or Mun. STP is guaranteed.
> My recommendation would be: Rom - Ven, Tyr S Rom - Ven, Adr S Tun - Ion,
> Lyo - Tus.
And with this set of move I might have to disband...sorry, not happening
right now, I am losing Bul, I am not going to risk that.
Ber should retreat to Kiel to force a vigorous defense of
> Munich on his part. Up north, Ben takes Fin.
>
Berlin is a fleet...it has zero bearing on Munich, and STP is guaranteed
Swe - Fin
Lvn - Mos
Nwy - Stp
Bar s Nwy - Stp
Nth - Nwy.....
Done deal.
Message from England to France and Italy
Gentlemen -
If I order the retreat to KIE then we can try to put an army in behind it,
and just pull it out to DEN or HEL in the fall, right? So doesn't
retreating make sense? I'd originally been thinking of disbanding - I feel
like I'm making myself crazy over this one stupid thing - input is welcome.
Ben
Message from France to England and Italy
> We will take VEN and maybe Vienna,Trieste or Mun. STP is guaranteed.
>
Mun, Tri and Vienna are longshots at best, but we should take Venice.
> > My recommendation would be: Rom - Ven, Tyr S Rom - Ven, Adr S Tun -
> Ion,
> > Lyo - Tus.
> And with this set of move I might have to disband...sorry, not happening
> right now, I am losing Bul, I am not going to risk that.
>
The only way to guarantee Venice (and avoid a disband) is to attack or
support with your fleet (or attack from Tyr, which I'm assuming is not an
option). The problem with using Adr for that (and I'm not saying it's a
deal breaker, just something to think about) is that it risks halting our
fleet progression eastward. We can order Tys - Ion, Adr S Tys - Ion, Tun S
Tys - Ion, Lyo - Tys, and that guarantees long-term possession of Ion for
our side. What's more, once we take Ion, Adr is free to attack Tri, Alb or
maybe Gre, as Tun and Tys can support Ion against Gre / Aeg / Eas
indefinitely. If he slips Bul - Gre, then Adr, Tys and Tun are all
necessary for a continued bounce in Ion, and they're all locked up.
See what I mean?
> Berlin is a fleet...it has zero bearing on Munich, and STP is guaranteed
You're right, my mistake. I had forgotten when looking at the map.
> Swe - Fin
> Lvn - Mos
> Nwy - Stp
> Bar s Nwy - Stp
> Nth - Nwy.....
>
> Done deal.
>
Yes.
Erik
Message from Italy to England and France
> > We will take VEN and maybe Vienna,Trieste or Mun. STP is guaranteed.
> >
>
> Mun, Tri and Vienna are longshots at best, but we should take Venice.
Munich can be guaranteed, unless he wants to take HUGE chances.
> > > My recommendation would be: Rom - Ven, Tyr S Rom - Ven, Adr S Tun -
> > Ion,
> > > Lyo - Tus.
> > And with this set of move I might have to disband...sorry, not happening
> > right now, I am losing Bul, I am not going to risk that.
> The only way to guarantee Venice (and avoid a disband) is to attack or
> support with your fleet (or attack from Tyr, which I'm assuming is not an
> option).
Correct.
The problem with using Adr for that (and I'm not saying it's a
> deal breaker, just something to think about) is that it risks halting our
> fleet progression eastward. We can order Tys - Ion, Adr S Tys - Ion, Tun S
> Tys - Ion, Lyo - Tys, and that guarantees long-term possession of Ion for
> our side.
Correct. And it gives me a 50-50 on disbanding one of my 3 units.
Erik....think about what you are asking me to do, and tell me if you would
do it in my shoes....
Support a guy to surround your own position, where you can potentially
only have 2 units at the end of Fall and he has supported attacks on both
remaining dots.
What's more, once we take Ion, Adr is free to attack Tri, Alb or
> maybe Gre, as Tun and Tys can support Ion against Gre / Aeg / Eas
> indefinitely. If he slips Bul - Gre,
He doesnt own GRE yet, and if he wants to guarantee SMY he has to use
AEG....I think you are pretty safe in getting to the ION.
then Adr, Tys and Tun are all
> necessary for a continued bounce in Ion, and they're all locked up.
Well....if we get me a build, I build in NAP and we force the ION in the
spring.
Would you agree that BOH has to cover Vienna?? If you can agree with that,
then we can force MUN and STP and VEN, I can build and we forced the ION
in the spring.
Andy
Message from Italy to England
> like I'm making myself crazy over this one stupid thing - input is welcome.
Keep the unit, if we need to we can retreat it to HEL or DEN
Message from Italy to England
Ben,
Erik's suggestions are insane. He must think I am a moron or something
that I would allow him to make the moves he discusses.
If he tells me this is a deal-breaker I have to assume that he is going to
try to eliminate me. And act accordingly.
Andy
Message from England to Italy
Andy -
> Erik's suggestions are insane. He must think I am a moron or something
> that I would allow him to make the moves he discusses.
I don't think he gave it much thought. I don't *think* he's contemplating
eliminating you, yet; perhaps the key is to highlight how the non-insane
proposal attacks *Russia* as opposed to how it scares *you*.
I mean, my JDPR may be only 352, or something, but that's my thought.
> If he tells me this is a deal-breaker I have to assume that he is going to
> try to eliminate me. And act accordingly.
Take a deep breath. If he sees you panic, he will panic too.
Ben
Message from Italy to England
> > Erik's suggestions are insane. He must think I am a moron or something
> > that I would allow him to make the moves he discusses.
> I don't think he gave it much thought. I don't *think* he's contemplating
> eliminating you, yet; perhaps the key is to highlight how the non-insane
> proposal attacks *Russia* as opposed to how it scares *you*.
I gave him an outlet to get me a build and have us have 4 fleets on
the ION, problem solved.
> I mean, my JDPR may be only 352, or something, but that's my thought.
JDPR means nothing.....zero......
> > If he tells me this is a deal-breaker I have to assume that he is going to
> > try to eliminate me. And act accordingly.
> Take a deep breath. If he sees you panic, he will panic too.
I wont panic. I dont panic, ever. But he has to see how much he threatens
me with his suggested moves.
Andy
Message from England to France and Italy
> The problem with using Adr for that (and I'm not saying it's a
> > deal breaker, just something to think about) is that it risks halting
our
> > fleet progression eastward. We can order Tys - Ion, Adr S Tys - Ion,
Tun S
> > Tys - Ion, Lyo - Tys, and that guarantees long-term possession of Ion
for
> > our side.
>
> Correct. And it gives me a 50-50 on disbanding one of my 3 units.
They are both reasonable choices, far from my theater.
I do not see a stong tactical advantage to one or the other - they each
have risk & payoff - but I do not want to see rifts in our alliance right
now. We are in the same sandbox, and I think if one of us has strong
feelings one way or another on a particular move, we should try to honor
that sentiment if at all possible. I am trying to be accommodating & I
hope the both of you can do the same.
In other words - let's go with Andy's proposal, so Andy doesn't explode.
If Andy's proposal were unreasonable, then I would feel differently. But
with two reasonable proposals on the table, and one of them offensive to
one of our number, I think we should go with the other.
Ben
Message from England to France
Erik -
I think in the end we will see a REF draw. But it's a close call for right
now - let's not make things more risky than necessary, is my thinking.
Ben
Message from Italy to England and France
> I do not see a stong tactical advantage to one or the other - they each
> have risk & payoff - but I do not want to see rifts in our alliance right
> now. We are in the same sandbox, and I think if one of us has strong
> feelings one way or another on a particular move, we should try to honor
> that sentiment if at all possible. I am trying to be accommodating & I
> hope the both of you can do the same.
Yes.
> In other words - let's go with Andy's proposal, so Andy doesn't explode.
Thank you.
> If Andy's proposal were unreasonable, then I would feel differently. But
> with two reasonable proposals on the table, and one of them offensive to
> one of our number, I think we should go with the other.
With the whole plan?
Message from England to Italy
Andy -
I hope I've pushed things in the right direction.
I'm working tonight. I'll be around more then.
> I wont panic. I dont panic, ever.
You are the very model of a modern major general.
Time for my nap!
Ben
Message from England to Italy
Andy -
> With the whole plan?
I'll look at the North later - for now, my goal was to keep the peace.
Ben
Message from France to England and Italy
>
> In other words - let's go with Andy's proposal, so Andy doesn't explode.
> If Andy's proposal were unreasonable, then I would feel differently.
> But
> with two reasonable proposals on the table, and one of them offensive to
> one of our number, I think we should go with the other.
>
I'm fine with that. My analysis is driven by my role in this operation,
which is to flood the Mediterannean with naval power and prevent Russia
from breaking out past Ion -- we will be in trouble if he does. Obviously,
I'm willing to sacrifice some gains there to keep Andy alive, since his
centers push Russia well past 18.
And I agree that St. P is a high probability. What about Munich? It seems
unlikely without support from Tyr.
Erik
Message from Italy to England and France
>
> I'm fine with that. My analysis is driven by my role in this operation,
> which is to flood the Mediterannean with naval power and prevent Russia
> from breaking out past Ion -- we will be in trouble if he does. Obviously,
> I'm willing to sacrifice some gains there to keep Andy alive, since his
> centers push Russia well past 18.
>
And I appreciate that.
> And I agree that St. P is a high probability. What about Munich? It seems
> unlikely without support from Tyr.
STP is guaranteed.
Munich is virtually guaranteed if Tyrolia is the mover.
Tyr - Mun
Ruh s Tyr - Mun
Bur s Tyr - Mun
Kie - Ber
Bal s Kie - Ber
Hol - Kie
Unless Eric ignores protecting Vienna and Warsaw, Tyr - Mun works. If Tyr
is used in support, Ven - Tyr can cut support and its unlikely to work.
Nwy - Stp
Nth - Nwy
Bar s Nwy - Stp
Swe - Fin
Lvn - Mos
works everyday.
I build a fleet in Naples, even though I think an army might be better,
and we support you to ION in the spring.
Andy
Message from Observer to Observer
Well that was pretty interesting.
My first thought on the Berlin retreat was that England should
disband so that he could move his army in in the fall. However,
now I'm thinking he should go ahead and retreat to Kiel. He can
then launch (with France's cooperation) two strength attacks on
both Munich and Berlin. Russia has plenty to defend those two
centers with, except that those units also have to defend Warsaw
and Vienna. Here are England's fall moves:
a nwy -> stp
f bar s a nwy -> stp
a lvn -> mos
a swe -> fin
f nth -> nwy
f kie -> ber
f bal s f kie -> ber
a hol -> kie
a ruh -> mun
a bur s a ruh -> mun (or vice versa)
If he thinks that Russia will concede StP, he could do this
instead: a lvn -> pru, which would increase his chances of
retaking Berlin. Of course, the downside is that the capture of
StP will no longer be guaranteed. OTOH, given the moves above,
Russia could take Kiel with this:
a mun -> kie
a ber s a mun -> kie
a pru s a ber
Assuming Silesia is moving to Warsaw and Bohemia to Vienna, this
guarantees both Berlin and Munich while keeping Kiel safe. StP can
be picked up next year if it doesn't get captured this year.
With a couple of hostile units breathing down his weakly guarded
interior, it seems likely that Russia will soon lose StP and all
of Germany. That's not necessarily a bad thing. He had to lose
those three centers to get a two way. Since I think he's right
that a solo is no longer a reasonable possibility, that's the best
he can do.
Greg
England: Fleet Berlin → Kiel
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