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Message from France to Master
So... after mulling things over a bit, my best guess for what Russia is up
to is that he is worried about FT whittling him out. So he moves
aggressivley to set up a stalemate line in the east, which does 2 things.
1) It makes it very hard (impossible) for Turkey to take any centers off
of him, and 2) It gives Turkey the implied message that if he does
anything funny, he will toss centers my way.
I suppose there is a 3rd implication, which is that if I take advantage of
this situation, that he will toss centers Turkey's way, quite possibly up
to and including a solo. But the important question is - can he do it?
Does he have the position and the units to do that if I attack, given the
removals he'll have to make when I take centers such as Den and Ber, and
the removals he'll have to make when Turkey takes the offered centers such
as Vie, Rum, Sev, etc. That is the $25,000 question.
My first take at answering that question is no. I don't think he can do
it. I think he is counting on me not moving on him, at least not just
yet. So now that I've made the decision to move on him now, the question
is how. The way I see it, Russia has 3 basic options:
1) Stay right where he is - holding and supporting, convoying everyone to
Switzerland, etc.
2) Completely reverse direction - that would probably entail just the
reverse of the moves that he made last fall, Lvn-Bal-Ber, Swe S Nwy-Ska,
etc.
3) Some sort of hybrid of the two. He'd use this third option if he
wanted to maintain his position on the front with Turkey, while also
slowing me down or suggesting I not take his centers.
It is this 3rd option that I think he will take. I am predicting (for what
it's worth), a self-bounce in Ska, with Bar S Stp-Nwy to protect Norway,
and F Bal-Ber (or maybe -Kie or -Den, or maybe just a support or convoy).
As such I am going to order to get 3 fleets on the Baltic, with Nth-Den,
Hel-Kie and Mun S Kie-Ber. I'm going to order Boh-Sil not so much because
I want to be in Silesia (though I wouldn't mind it), but to bounce War-Sil
if he does option 2.
In the south, I can hold off Turkey with two more fleets, as well as delay
him with 1 more fleet (Mar S Lyo, Wes S Tun). The fifth fleet would have
to go either in Spa to support Lyo, or Naf to support Tun (allowing Wes S
Lyo). I expect Turkey to try and shuffle his fleets this year. I could
force Tys, but that risks my losing Tunis and potentially getting a back
rank marauder. I think my plan will be Lyo S Tun-Tys, Wes-Tun, which
guarantees Tunis, while also taking Tys if he does anything but hold and
support. Even at a best case, it will be 2-3 years before Turkey has the
ability to take Tunis.
One problem with Russia's strategy is that because I'm in Tunis, the
potential stalemate line between Turkey and I does not run through War/Mos
(the centers he's now defending). Turkey would have to take all of those,
and also one more (be that Stp, Mun or Ber) to solo.
One last thing as well - I noticed that Russia offered a support to me
last year (as well as one to Turkey). I'm not sure what to make of that,
though I plan to make a bogus support to him this year just for kicks.
Message from Russia to Master
I'm guessing it's France who is delaying the end
and I hope he will tired of it.
Message from Turkey to Master
Well I hope everyone sets draw.It will be interesting to read why Russia
pulled back for no apparent reason.
France: Army Bohemia → Silesia
France: Fleet Edinburgh SUPPORT Fleet Norwegian Sea
France: Fleet English Channel → North Sea
France: Fleet Gulf of Lyon SUPPORT Fleet Tunis → Tyrrhenian Sea
France: Fleet Helgoland Bight → Kiel
France: Fleet Kiel → Berlin
France: Army Munich SUPPORT Fleet Kiel → Berlin
France: Fleet North Sea → Denmark
France: Fleet Norwegian Sea SUPPORT Russian Fleet Norway (*void*)
France: Army Piedmont → Tuscany
France: Army Ruhr SUPPORT Fleet Helgoland Bight → Kiel
France: Fleet Tunis → Tyrrhenian Sea
France: Fleet Western Mediterranean → Tunis
Russia: Fleet Baltic Sea HOLD
Russia: Fleet Barents Sea HOLD
Russia: Army Livonia HOLD
Russia: Army Moscow HOLD
Russia: Fleet Norway → Sweden
Russia: Army Rumania HOLD
Russia: Fleet St Petersburg (north coast) HOLD
Russia: Fleet Sweden → Gulf of Bothnia
Russia: Army Ukraine HOLD
Russia: Army Warsaw HOLD
Turkey: Fleet Adriatic Sea → Ionian Sea
Turkey: Army Budapest → Vienna
Turkey: Fleet Bulgaria (east coast) SUPPORT Russian Army Rumania
Turkey: Fleet Constantinople → Aegean Sea
Turkey: Fleet Ionian Sea → Naples
Turkey: Army Serbia → Budapest
Turkey: Fleet Smyrna → Eastern Mediterranean
Turkey: Army Trieste SUPPORT Army Tyrolia
Turkey: Army Tuscany → Venice
Turkey: Army Tyrolia SUPPORT French Army Munich
Turkey: Fleet Tyrrhenian Sea → Rome
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